| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15477 |
| DP15477 Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events | |
| Christoph Becker; Tigran Melkonyan; Eugenio Proto; Andis Sofianos; Stefan Trautmann | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if subjects update their beliefs in a way that is consistent reverse Bayesian, which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants do not systematically deviate from reverse Bayesianism, but they do not seem to expect an unknown event when this is reasonably unforeseeable, in two pre-registered experiments that entail unforeseen events. We argue that participants deviate less from the reverse Bayesian updating than from the usual Bayesian updating. We provide further evidence on the moderators of belief updating. |
| 主题 | Industrial Organization |
| 关键词 | Reverse bayesianism Unforeseen Unawareness Bayesian updating |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15477 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544473 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christoph Becker,Tigran Melkonyan,Eugenio Proto,et al. DP15477 Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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