| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15478 |
| DP15478 Debt sustainability when r - g < 0: no free lunch after all | |
| Sweder van Wijnbergen; Stan Olijslagers; Nander de Vette | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Interest rates on public debt have for several years now fallen short of GDP growth rates in much of the Western world. In his presidential address to the AEA Blanchard argued that this implies that there are no fiscal costs to high debt \citep{blanchard2019public}.\footnote{He did outline other reasons not to run large deficits in his address.} In this paper we argue that the safe rate is not the right interest rate to use for that comparison. We develop a General Equilibrium Asset Pricing model and econometrically estimate the relevant characteristics of the stochastic processes driving the primary surplus in relation to the growth rate of aggregate consumption and derive the proper risk premium. The resulting interest rate exceeds the growth rate. We then calculate the discounted value of future primary surpluses using the same stochastic process for the primary surplus and compare that to the market value of the (Dutch) public sector debt. We test various explanations for the gap between these two and derive the fiscal adjustment necessary to eliminate it (the ``fiscal sustainability gap"). |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Debt valuation Sustainable deficits Fiscal adjustment gap |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15478 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544474 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sweder van Wijnbergen,Stan Olijslagers,Nander de Vette. DP15478 Debt sustainability when r - g < 0: no free lunch after all. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
