G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15491
DP15491 Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World
Klaus Desmet; David Krisztian Nagy; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
发表日期2020-11-24
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1º by 1º resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.
主题Development Economics ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词Global warming Sectoral specialization Trade Migration Geography Growth Space
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15491
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544489
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Klaus Desmet,David Krisztian Nagy,Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. DP15491 Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World. 2020.
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