| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15526 |
| DP15526 How Does International Capital Flow? | |
| Michael Kumhof; Andrej Sokol; Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-07 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Understanding gross capital flows is increasingly viewed as crucial for both macroeconomic and financial stability policies, but theory is lagging behind many key policy debates. We fill this gap by developing a 2-country DSGE model that tracks domestic and cross-border gross positions between banks and households, with explicit settlement of all transactions through banks. We formalize the conceptual distinction between cross-border saving and financing, which often move in opposite directions in response to shocks. This matters for at least four policy debates. First, current accounts are poor indicators of financial vulnerability, because in a crisis creditors stop financing debt rather than current accounts, and because following a crisis current accounts are not the primary channel through which balance sheets adjust. Second, we re-interpret the global saving glut hypothesis by submitting that US households do not finance current account deficits with foreigners’ physical saving, but with digital purchasing power, created by banks that are more likely to be domestic than foreign. Third, Triffin’s current account dilemma is not in fact a dilemma, because the creation of additional US dollars requires dollar credit creation by domestic or foreign banks rather than US current account deficits. Finally, we show that the observed high correlation of gross capital inflows and outflows is overwhelmingly an automatic consequence of double entry bookkeeping, rather than the result of two separate and synchronized sets of economic decisions. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Bank lending International capital flows Gross capital flows Current account Money creation Sudden stops Global saving glut Triffin’s dilemma |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15526 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544528 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Kumhof,Andrej Sokol,Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul. DP15526 How Does International Capital Flow?. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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