| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15541 |
| DP15541 Optimally Controlling an Epidemic | |
| Martín Gonzalez-Eiras; Dirk Niepelt | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity. (ii) Re-infection risk lowers the activity level chosen by the government early on and, for small static externalities, implies too cautious equilibrium steady-state activity. (iii) When a cure arrives deterministically, optimal policy is dis-continous, featuring a light/strict lockdown when the arrival date exceeds/falls short of a specific value. Calibrated to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the baseline model and a battery of robustness checks and extensions imply (iv) lockdowns for 3-4 months, with activity reductions by 25-40 percent, and (v) substantial welfare gains from optimal policy unless the government lacks instruments to stimulate activity after a lockdown. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Epidemic Lockdown Forced opening Sir Sis Si Logistic model Covid-19 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15541 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544544 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martín Gonzalez-Eiras,Dirk Niepelt. DP15541 Optimally Controlling an Epidemic. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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