| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15542 |
| DP15542 Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa | |
| Ulrich J. Eberle; Dominic Rohner | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-12-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1°C increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. We then quantify the impact on conflicts of projected climate change in 2040. We find that, in absence of mixed areas, global warming would increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland --a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution. |
| 主题 | Development Economics |
| 关键词 | Violence Farmer-herder conflict Climate change Temperature Nomadic Resource competition Africa Sahel |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15542 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544545 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ulrich J. Eberle,Dominic Rohner. DP15542 Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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