全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15604 Specialization, Market Access and Real Income

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15604
	DP15604 Specialization, Market Access and Real Income
	Dominick Bartelme; Ting Lan; Andrei Levchenko
发表日期	2020-12-23
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	This paper estimates the impact of external demand shocks on real income. Our empirical strategy is based on a first order approximation to a wide class of small open economy models that feature sector-level gravity in trade flows. The framework allows us to measure foreign shocks and characterize their impact on income in terms of reduced-form elasticities. We use machine learning techniques to group 4-digit manufacturing sectors into a smaller number of clusters, and show that the cluster-level elasticities of income with respect to foreign shocks can be estimated using high-dimensional statistical techniques. We find clear evidence of heterogeneity in the income responses to different foreign shocks. Foreign demand shocks in complex intermediate and capital goods have large positive impacts on real income, whereas impacts in other sectors are negligible. The estimates imply that the pattern of sectoral specialization plays a quantitatively large role in how foreign shocks affect real income, while geographic position plays a smaller role. Finally, a calibrated multi-sector production and trade model can rationalize both the average and the heterogeneity in real income elasticities to foreign shocks under reasonable values of structural parameters.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词	Trade specialization Real income Gravity K-means clustering
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15604-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544615
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dominick Bartelme,Ting Lan,Andrei Levchenko. DP15604 Specialization, Market Access and Real Income. 2020.