全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15605 The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15605
	DP15605 The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates
	Francesco Bianchi; Giada Bianchi; Dongho Song
发表日期	2020-12-23
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit a Vector-autoregression (VAR) for the overall US population and for groups identified based on gender and race. We find that shocks to unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in mortality rates and declines in life expectancy. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons. These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词	Covid-19 Life expectancy Mortality Unemployment rate
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15605
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544617
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Francesco Bianchi,Giada Bianchi,Dongho Song. DP15605 The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates. 2020.