G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15834
DP15834 Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?
Mathieu Cros; Anne Epaulard; Philippe Martin
发表日期2021-02-22
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We estimate the factors predicting firm failures in the COVID crisis based on French data in 2020. Although the number of firms filling for bankruptcy was much below its normal level (- 36% compared to 2019) the same factors that predicted firm failures (primarily productivity and debt) in 2019 are at work in a similar way as in 2020. Hence, the selection process, although much reduced, has not been distorted in 2020. At this stage, partial hibernation rather than zombification characterises the selection into firm survival or failure. We also find that the sectoral heterogeneity of the turnover COVID shock (proxied by the change in credit card transactions) has been largely (but not fully) absorbed by public policy support because it predicts little of the probability of bankruptcy at the firm level. Finally, we sketch some potential scenarios for 2021-2022 for different sectors based on our empirical estimates of predictors of firm failures.
主题Macroeconomics and Growth
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15834
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544831
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mathieu Cros,Anne Epaulard,Philippe Martin. DP15834 Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?. 2021.
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