| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15842 |
| DP15842 Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows | |
| Lucyna Gornicka; Robin Koepke; Ratna Sahay; Silvia Sgherri | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on changes in global financial conditions, domestic structural characteristics, and policies. The approach allows us to differentiate between short- and medium-term effects. We find that FX- and macroprudential interventions are effective in mitigating downside risks to portfolio flows stemming from adverse global shocks, while tightening of capital controls in response appears to be counterproductive. Good institutional frameworks are not able to shield countries from the increased volatility of portfolio flows in the immediate aftermath of global shocks. However, they do contribute to a more rapid bounce-back of foreign flows over the medium term. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Capital flows Macroprudential policies Foreign-exchange intervention Capital controls Emerging markets |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15842 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544837 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lucyna Gornicka,Robin Koepke,Ratna Sahay,et al. DP15842 Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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