G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15842
DP15842 Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
Lucyna Gornicka; Robin Koepke; Ratna Sahay; Silvia Sgherri
发表日期2021-02-23
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on changes in global financial conditions, domestic structural characteristics, and policies. The approach allows us to differentiate between short- and medium-term effects. We find that FX- and macroprudential interventions are effective in mitigating downside risks to portfolio flows stemming from adverse global shocks, while tightening of capital controls in response appears to be counterproductive. Good institutional frameworks are not able to shield countries from the increased volatility of portfolio flows in the immediate aftermath of global shocks. However, they do contribute to a more rapid bounce-back of foreign flows over the medium term.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词Capital flows Macroprudential policies Foreign-exchange intervention Capital controls Emerging markets
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15842
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544837
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lucyna Gornicka,Robin Koepke,Ratna Sahay,et al. DP15842 Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows. 2021.
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