| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP15919
|
| DP15919 The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle |
| Christian Gollier
|
| 发表日期 | 2021-03-14
|
| 出版年 | 2021
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and its associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. Under the Hotelling’s rule, the growth rate of this price should be equal to the interest rate. It is therefore a puzzle that cost-efficiency IAM models yield carbon prices that increase at an average real growth rate around 7% per year. This carbon pricing puzzle suggests that their abatement trajectories
are not intertemporally optimized, probably because of the political unacceptability of a high initial carbon price. Using an intertemporal asset pricing approach, I examine the impact of the uncertainties surrounding economic growth and abatement technologies on the dynamics of efficient carbon prices, interest rates and risk premia. I show that marginal abatement costs and aggregate consumption are positively correlated along the optimal abatement path, implying a positive carbon risk premium and an efficient growth rate of expected carbon prices larger than the interest rate. From this numerical exercise, I recommend a growth rate of expected carbon price around 3.75% per year (plus inflation). I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to cost-efficiency carbon pricing implies a large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint. In this model, green investors are compensated for this risk by a large risk premium embedded in the growth rate of expected carbon prices, not by a collar on carbon prices as often recommended. |
| 主题 | Climate Change
|
| 关键词 | Carbon budget
Risk-adjusted hotelling’s rule
Green finance
Climate beta
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15919
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544911
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Christian Gollier. DP15919 The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle. 2021.
|
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