| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15958 |
| DP15958 One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles | |
| Eric Monnet; Damien Puy | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-03-25 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly macro-financial dataset assembled using IMF archives, covering a large set of countries since 1950. World cycles, real and financial, exist and US shocks drive them. But their strength is modest for GDP and credit. Global financial cycles are much weaker for credit than for asset prices. We also challenge the view that synchronization has increased with globalization. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), it is not for quantities (output and credit). World business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1972) as during the Globalization period (1982-2006). We investigate the economic and financial forces driving our results, connect them to the existing literature and discuss important policy implications. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | World cycles Business cycles Financial cycles Financial integration Trade integration Globalization Us monetary policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15958 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544948 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eric Monnet,Damien Puy. DP15958 One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles. 2021. |
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