| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15979 |
| DP15979 Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations | |
| Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde; Thorsten Drautzburg; Pablo Guerron | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-03-29 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers' bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these distribution shocks, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth economy. We model distribution shocks as exogenous changes in workers' bargaining power in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate our economy to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector, and we back out the evolution of workers' bargaining power. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 28% of aggregate fluctuations and have a welfare cost of 2.4% in consumption units. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Distribution risk Bargaining shocks Aggregate fluctuations Partial filter Historical narrative |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15979 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544966 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde,Thorsten Drautzburg,Pablo Guerron. DP15979 Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
