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来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15993
DP15993 COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing
Alexander Chudik; M. Hashem Pesaran; Alessandro Rebucci
发表日期2021-04-01
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on changes in the behavior of the virus, reflecting mutations and vaccinations, and changes in people's behavior, reflecting voluntary or government mandated isolation. Over our sample period, neither mutation nor vaccination are major factors, so one can attribute variation in the transmission rate to variations in behavior. Evidence based on panel data models explaining transmission rates for nine European countries indicates that the diversity of outcomes results from the non-linear interaction of mandatory containment measures, voluntary precautionary isolation, and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. These effects are precisely estimated and robust to various assumptions. As a result, countries with seemingly different social distancing policies achieved quite similar outcomes in terms of the reproduction number. These results imply that ignoring the voluntary component of social distancing could introduce an upward bias in the estimates of the effects of lock-downs and support policies on the transmission rates. The full set of estimation results and the replication package are available on the authors' websites.
主题Development Economics ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Labour Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics
关键词Covid-19 Sir model Epidemics Multiplication factor Under-reporting Voluntary social distancing
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15993
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544978
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Alexander Chudik,M. Hashem Pesaran,Alessandro Rebucci. DP15993 COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing. 2021.
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