| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16020 |
| DP16020 The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models | |
| Ippei Fujiwara; Yuichiro Waki | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-04-09 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | When the central bank has information that can help the private sector better predict the future, should it communicate such information to the public? In purely forward-looking New Keynesian models, such Delphic forward guidance unambiguously reduces ex ante welfare by increasing the variability of inflation and the output gap. We call this phenomenon the Delphic forward guidance puzzle. In more elaborate models with endogenous state variables, a combination of Delphic forward guidance and preemptive policy actions may improve welfare. However, full information revelation is generally not optimal and what information needs to be revealed is highly model-dependent. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | News shock Optimal monetary policy Private information Bayesian persuasion Forward guidance New keynesian models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16020 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545003 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ippei Fujiwara,Yuichiro Waki. DP16020 The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models. 2021. |
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