全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP16050 Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP16050
	DP16050 Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment
	Günter Coenen; Carlos Montes-Galdón; Frank Smets
发表日期	2021-04-18
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We study the incidence and severity of periods with a binding effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies—forward guidance about the path of future interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending based fiscal stimulus—in mitigating the detrimental consequences of the lower bound. Based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model of the euro area, our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can cause substantial macroeconomic distortions. In the near term, forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo the distortions due to the lower bound. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, especially when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward-guidance policy via a signalling effect. In the long run, with an equilibrium real rate as low as zero, a combination of all three policies is needed to materially reduce the distortions.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Effective lower bound monetary policy Forward guidance Asset purchases Fiscal policy Euro area
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp16050
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545030
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Günter Coenen,Carlos Montes-Galdón,Frank Smets. DP16050 Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment. 2021.