全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP16108 Worse Than You Think: Public Debt Forecast Errors in Advanced and Developing Economies

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来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP16108
	DP16108 Worse Than You Think: Public Debt Forecast Errors in Advanced and Developing Economies
	Julia Estefania Flores; Davide Furceri; Siddharth Kothari; Jonathan D. Ostry
发表日期	2021-05-04
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We compile a unique dataset of medium-term public debt forecasts for an unbalanced panel of 174 countries, based on IMF (for the period 1995–2020) and Economist Intelligence Unit (2007–20) projections. We find that on average: (i) there is a positive forecast error (FE) in the debt-to-GDP projections—that is, realized debt ratios are larger than forecasts; (ii) the FE increases with the projection horizon and is statistically significant and large—about 10 percent of GDP at the five-year horizon; (iii) the magnitude is similar between advanced (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and in EMDEs is present irrespective of recessions while for AEs is associated with surprise recessions in the forecast horizon; (iv) FEs are not statistically different between IMF program and non-program cases; (v) positive FEs are only partly attributable to optimism about growth; and (vi) oil-exporters and more volatile countries tend to have larger FEs. If FEs following the COVID crisis are in line with those that followed the Global Financial Crisis, average debt ratios in EMDEs would increase to close to 73 percent of GDP by 2025 instead of declining to 63 percent of GDP as currently forecast.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Public Economics
关键词	Public debt Forecast errors
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp16108
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545085
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Julia Estefania Flores,Davide Furceri,Siddharth Kothari,et al. DP16108 Worse Than You Think: Public Debt Forecast Errors in Advanced and Developing Economies. 2021.