| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16112 |
| DP16112 Lockdowns as options | |
| Sweder van Wijnbergen | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-05 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic. We show the analogy to binary options and provide a pricing formula quantifying the option value embedded in a stochastic vaccine arrival process. The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger the more likely vaccine discovery is, and the less uncertainty exists about its effectiveness. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Pandemic dynamics Stochastic vaccination arrival information Irreversibility Lockdowns Real options |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16112-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545089 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sweder van Wijnbergen. DP16112 Lockdowns as options. 2021. |
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