| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16152 |
| DP16152 The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest | |
| Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov; Samuel Pienknagura; Luca Antonio Ricci | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-13 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country's policy space. Third, an unrest event, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Social unrest Economic activity Growth Institutions Policy space |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16152 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545125 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov,Samuel Pienknagura,Luca Antonio Ricci. DP16152 The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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