| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16153 |
| DP16153 Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons | |
| Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov; Luca Antonio Ricci; Alejandro Werner; Rene Zamarripa | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-13 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Economic forecasts Forecast revisions Growth forecasts Weo |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16153 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545126 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov,Luca Antonio Ricci,Alejandro Werner,et al. DP16153 Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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