| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16196 |
| DP16196 When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis | |
| Tomas Havranek; Dominika Kolcunova; Josef Bajzik | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-27 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Iinterest rates House prices Monetary policy transmission Meta-analysis Publication bias Bayesian model averaging |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16196 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545167 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tomas Havranek,Dominika Kolcunova,Josef Bajzik. DP16196 When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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