| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16276 |
| DP16276 Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? | |
| Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov; Luca Antonio Ricci; Alejandro Werner; Rene Zamarripa | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-06-18 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Forecast error Fiscal balance Fiscal forecasts |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16276 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545242 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov,Luca Antonio Ricci,Alejandro Werner,等. DP16276 Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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