| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16277 |
| DP16277 Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery | |
| Lutz Kilian; Nomikos Nikos; Xiaoqing Zhou | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-06-19 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 57% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 78%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Merchandise trade Container Shipping Manufacturing Consumption Covid-19 Supply chain Recession Recovery Globalization |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16277 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545243 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Nomikos Nikos,Xiaoqing Zhou. DP16277 Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
