G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16324
DP16324 Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?
Witold Więcek; Amrita Ahuja; Michael Kremer; Alexandre Simoes Gomes Junior; Christopher Snyder; Alex Tabarrok; Brandon Tan
发表日期2021-07-03
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We argue that alternative COVID-19 vaccine dosing regimens could potentially dramatically accelerate global COVID-19 vaccination and reduce mortality, and that the costs of testing these regimens are dwarfed by their potential benefits. We first use the high correlation between neutralizing antibody response and efficacy against disease (Khoury et. al. 2021) to show that half or even quarter doses of some vaccines generate immune responses associated with high vaccine efficacy. We then use an SEIR model to estimate that under these efficacy levels, doubling or quadrupling the rate of vaccination by using fractional doses would dramatically reduce infections and mortality. Since the correlation between immune response and efficacy may not be fully predictive of efficacy with fractional doses, we then use the SEIR model to show that fractional dosing would substantially reduce infections and mortality over a wide range of plausible efficacy levels. Further immunogenicity studies for a range of vaccine and dose combinations could deliver outcomes in weeks and could be conducted with a few hundred healthy volunteers. National regulatory authorities could also decide to test efficacy of fractional dosing in the context of vaccination campaigns based on existing immune response data, as some did for delayed second doses. If efficacy turned out to be high, the approach could be implemented broadly, while if it turned out to be low, downside risk could be limited by administering full doses to those who had received fractional doses. The SEIR model also suggests that delaying second vaccine doses will likely have substantial mortality benefits for multiple, but not all, vaccine-variant combinations, underscoring the importance of ongoing surveillance. Finally, we find that for countries choosing between approved but lower efficacy vaccines available immediately and waiting for mRNA vaccines, using immediately available vaccines typically reduces mortality.
主题Development Economics
关键词Vaccine Pandemic Epidemiology Public health Supply chains
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16324
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545288
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Witold Więcek,Amrita Ahuja,Michael Kremer,et al. DP16324 Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?. 2021.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Witold Więcek]的文章
[Amrita Ahuja]的文章
[Michael Kremer]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Witold Więcek]的文章
[Amrita Ahuja]的文章
[Michael Kremer]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Witold Więcek]的文章
[Amrita Ahuja]的文章
[Michael Kremer]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。