G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16328
DP16328 Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?
Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge
发表日期2021-07-05
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May 2020 has been the fastest. Second, the decline in global inflation from January-May 2020 was four-fifths driven by the collapse in global demand and another one-fifth driven by plunging oil prices, with some offsetting inflationary pressures from supply disruptions. The subsequent surge in inflation has been mostly driven by a sharp increase in global demand. Third, both model-based forecasts and current inflation expectations point to an increase in inflation for 2021 of just over 1 percentage point. For virtually all advanced economies and one-half of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), an increase of this magnitude would leave inflation within target ranges. If the increase is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it may not warrant a monetary policy response. If, however, inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored, EMDE central banks may be compelled to tighten monetary policy before the recovery is fully entrenched.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词Global inflation Covid-19 Global recession Favar Oil prices Global shocks
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16328
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545292
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jongrim Ha,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge. DP16328 Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?. 2021.
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