G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16368
DP16368 Herding Through Booms and Busts
Edouard Schaal; Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel
发表日期2021-07-17
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要This paper explores whether rational herding can generate endogenous aggregate fluctuations. We embed a tractable model of rational herding into a business cycle framework. In the model, technological innovations arrive with unknown qualities and agents have dispersed information about how productive the technology really is. Rational investors decide whether to invest based on their private information and the investment behavior of others. Herd-driven boom-bust cycles arise endogenously in this environment when the technology is unproductive but investors' initial information is unusually optimistic. Their overoptimism leads to high investment rates, which investors mistakenly attribute to good fundamentals, leading to a self-reinforcing pattern of higher optimism and higher investment until the economy reaches a peak, followed by a crash when agents ultimately realize their mistake. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and show that it can explain boom-and-bust cycles in line with episodes like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.
主题Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Herding Booms and busts Bubbles Endogenous business cycles
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16368
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545330
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Edouard Schaal,Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. DP16368 Herding Through Booms and Busts. 2021.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Edouard Schaal]的文章
[Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Edouard Schaal]的文章
[Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Edouard Schaal]的文章
[Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。