| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16368 |
| DP16368 Herding Through Booms and Busts | |
| Edouard Schaal; Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-07-17 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explores whether rational herding can generate endogenous aggregate fluctuations. We embed a tractable model of rational herding into a business cycle framework. In the model, technological innovations arrive with unknown qualities and agents have dispersed information about how productive the technology really is. Rational investors decide whether to invest based on their private information and the investment behavior of others. Herd-driven boom-bust cycles arise endogenously in this environment when the technology is unproductive but investors' initial information is unusually optimistic. Their overoptimism leads to high investment rates, which investors mistakenly attribute to good fundamentals, leading to a self-reinforcing pattern of higher optimism and higher investment until the economy reaches a peak, followed by a crash when agents ultimately realize their mistake. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and show that it can explain boom-and-bust cycles in line with episodes like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Herding Booms and busts Bubbles Endogenous business cycles |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16368 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545330 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Edouard Schaal,Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. DP16368 Herding Through Booms and Busts. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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