G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16417
DP16417 Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP
Ana Beatriz Galvao; James Mitchell
发表日期2021-08-02
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要Economic statistics are commonly published without any explicit indication of their uncertainty. To assess if and how the UK public interpret and understand data uncertainty, we conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment. A control group is presented with the headline point estimate of GDP, as emphasized by the statistical office. Treatment groups are then presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understand there is uncertainty inherent in official GDP numbers. But communicating uncertainty information improves understanding. It encourages the public not to take estimates at face-value, but does not decrease trust in the data. Quantitative tools to communicate data uncertainty - notably intervals, density strips and bell curves - are especially beneficial. They reduce dispersion of the public’s subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty, improving alignment with objective estimates.
主题Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Macroeconomic data uncertainty Uncertainty communication Data revision Randomized experiments
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16417
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545379
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ana Beatriz Galvao,James Mitchell. DP16417 Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP. 2021.
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