| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16417 |
| DP16417 Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP | |
| Ana Beatriz Galvao; James Mitchell | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-08-02 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Economic statistics are commonly published without any explicit indication of their uncertainty. To assess if and how the UK public interpret and understand data uncertainty, we conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment. A control group is presented with the headline point estimate of GDP, as emphasized by the statistical office. Treatment groups are then presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understand there is uncertainty inherent in official GDP numbers. But communicating uncertainty information improves understanding. It encourages the public not to take estimates at face-value, but does not decrease trust in the data. Quantitative tools to communicate data uncertainty - notably intervals, density strips and bell curves - are especially beneficial. They reduce dispersion of the public’s subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty, improving alignment with objective estimates. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Macroeconomic data uncertainty Uncertainty communication Data revision Randomized experiments |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16417 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545379 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ana Beatriz Galvao,James Mitchell. DP16417 Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
