全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP16444 The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP16444
	DP16444 The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare
	Almut Balleer; Georg Duernecker; Susanne Forstner; Johannes Goensch
发表日期	2021-08-11
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	Idiosyncratic labor risk is a prevalent phenomenon with important implications for individual choices. In labor market research it is commonly assumed that agents have rational expectations and therefore they correctly assess the risk they face in the labor market. We analyze survey data for the U.S. and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their subjective expectations about future labor market transitions. Furthermore, we analyze the heterogeneity in the bias across different demographic groups and we find that high-school graduates tend to be vastly over-optimistic about their labor market prospects, whereas college graduates have rather precise beliefs. In the context of a quantitative heterogenous agents lifecycle model we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on the life-cycle allocation of income, consumption and wealth and implies a substantial loss in individual welfare compared to the allocation under full information. Moreover, we establish that the heterogeneity in the bias leads to pronounced differences in the accumulation of assets across individuals, and is thereby a quantitatively important driver of inequality in wealth.
主题	Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词	Subjective expectations Labor markets Consumption Saving Wealth Inequality
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp16444
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545402
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Almut Balleer,Georg Duernecker,Susanne Forstner,et al. DP16444 The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare. 2021.