| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16470 |
| DP16470 Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century | |
| Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Frederic Martenet; Matthew Rognlie | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-08-18 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to-GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16470-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545428 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Adrien Auclert,Hannes Malmberg,Frederic Martenet,et al. DP16470 Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
