G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16470
DP16470 Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Adrien Auclert; Hannes Malmberg; Frederic Martenet; Matthew Rognlie
发表日期2021-08-18
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross-sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equilibrium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to-GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16470-0
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545428
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Adrien Auclert,Hannes Malmberg,Frederic Martenet,et al. DP16470 Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century. 2021.
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