| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16498 |
| DP16498 Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles | |
| Ceyhun Elgin; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge; Shu Yu | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-08-31 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the degree of synchronization between formal- and informal-economy business cycles. Using a comprehensive database of informal activity that covers a wide range of informality measures from almost 160 countries over the 1990-2018 period, we report two major results. First, fluctuations in informal-sector output are strongly positively correlated with those in formal-sector output. In contrast, fluctuations in informal employment are largely uncorrelated with those in formal-sector output. Second, movements in the formal economy tend to spillover to the informal economy. Using a novel set of instrumental variables, we show that fluctuations in formal-sector output “cause” movements in informal-sector output. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Informal economy Self-employment Business cycle |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16498 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545453 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ceyhun Elgin,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge,et al. DP16498 Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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