全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP16539 On the Benefits of Repaying

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP16539
	DP16539 On the Benefits of Repaying
	Francesca Caselli; Matilde Faralli; Paolo Manasse; Ugo Panizza
发表日期	2021-09-12
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.
主题	Economic History ; International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词	Sovereing debt Default Reputation
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp16539
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545491
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Francesca Caselli,Matilde Faralli,Paolo Manasse,et al. DP16539 On the Benefits of Repaying. 2021.