全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP16576 Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP16576
	DP16576 Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’
	Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Veronika Penciakova; Nick Sander
发表日期	2021-09-23
出版年	2021
语种	英语
摘要	We study the effects of fiscal policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic at the firm, sector, country and global level. First, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 and policy responses on small and medium sized enterprise (SME) business failures. We combine firm-level financial data from 50 sectors in 27 countries, a detailed I-O network, real-time data on lockdown policies and mobility patterns, and a rich model of firm behavior that allows for several dimensions of heterogeneity. We find: (a) Absent government support, the failure rate of SMEs would have increased by 9 percentage points, significantly more so in emerging market economies (EMs). With policy support it only increased by 4.3 per-centage points, and even decreased in advanced economies (AEs). (b) Fiscal policy was poorly targeted: most of the funds disbursed went to firms who did not need it. (c) Nev-ertheless, we find little evidence of the policy merely postponing mass business failures or creating many ‘zombie’ firms: failure rates rise only slightly in 2021 once policy support is removed. Next, we build a tractable global intertemporal general equilibrium I-O model with fiscal policy. We calibrate the model to 64 countries and 36 sectors. We find that: (d) a sizeable share of the global economy is demand-constrained under COVID-19, especially so in EMs. (e) Globally, fiscal policy helped offset about 8% of the downturn in COVID, with a low ‘traditional’ fiscal multiplier. Yet it significantly reduced the share of demand-constrained sectors, preserving employment in these sectors. (f) Fiscal policy exerted small and negative spillovers to output in other countries but positive spillovers on employment.(g) A two-speed recovery would put significant upwards pressure on global interest rates which imposes an additional headwind on the EM recovery. (h) Corporate and sovereign spreads rise when global rates increase, suggesting that EM may face challenging external funding conditions as AEs economies normalize.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp16576
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545525
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Veronika Penciakova,等. DP16576 Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’. 2021.