| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16583 |
| DP16583 Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World | |
| Kristin Forbes; Joseph Gagnon; Christopher Collins | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-09-27 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low”— which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative) but flat when output is below potential (slack is positive) so that further increases in economic slack have little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the Phillips curve is linear and relatively steep. These results are robust to placing the threshold between the high and low inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this nonlinear model, international factors play a large role in explaining headline inflation (albeit less so for core inflation), a role that has been increasing since the global financial crisis. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Economic slack Globalization Output gap Price dynamics monetary policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16583 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545532 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kristin Forbes,Joseph Gagnon,Christopher Collins. DP16583 Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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