G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP16688
DP16688 On the Persistence of the China Shock
David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson
发表日期2021-11-02
出版年2021
语种英语
摘要We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
主题International Trade and Regional Economics ; Labour Economics
关键词Import competition China trade Local labor markets Manufacturing decline Job loss
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp16688
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545624
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
David Autor,David Dorn,Gordon Hanson. DP16688 On the Persistence of the China Shock. 2021.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[David Autor]的文章
[David Dorn]的文章
[Gordon Hanson]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[David Autor]的文章
[David Dorn]的文章
[Gordon Hanson]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[David Autor]的文章
[David Dorn]的文章
[Gordon Hanson]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。