| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16689 |
| DP16689 Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs | |
| Ruediger Bachmann; Kai Carstensen; Stefan Lautenbacher; Martin Schneider | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-11-02 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if the experience was negative. At the quarterly frequency, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with past growth. In the cross section of firms, however, subjective uncertainty differs from conditional volatility: planning in successful firms—either large or fast-growing—reflects lower subjective uncertainty than in unsuccessful firms even when the size of the shocks is the same. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Expectation formation Firms Measurement Subjective uncertainty Survey data |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16689 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545625 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ruediger Bachmann,Kai Carstensen,Stefan Lautenbacher,等. DP16689 Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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