| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16710 |
| DP16710 The Effects of Forward Guidance: Theory with Measured Expectations | |
| Chris Roth; Mirko Wiederholt; Johannes Wohlfart | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-11-11 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects of forward guidance with an approach that combines theory with experimental estimates of counterfactual expectation adjustments. Guided by the model, we conduct experiments with representative samples of the US population to study how households adjust their expectations in response to changes in the Fed's projections about future interest rates. Respondents significantly downward-adjust their inflation expectations in response to learning about an increase in the Fed's projection about the federal funds rate three years in the future, and they expect inflation to respond most strongly immediately after the announcement. By contrast, respondents do not adjust their nominal income expectations. Our model-based estimates highlight a small average consumption response to forward guidance due to opposing effects from intertemporal substitution and changes in expected real income. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Expectation formation Information Updating |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16710 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545646 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chris Roth,Mirko Wiederholt,Johannes Wohlfart. DP16710 The Effects of Forward Guidance: Theory with Measured Expectations. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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