| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16759 |
| DP16759 Production Networks and War: Evidence from Ukraine | |
| Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-11-28 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, we uncover several novel indirect effects of conflict on firms. First, we document substantial propagation effects on interfirm trade --- trade declines even between partners outside the conflict areas if one of them had traded with those areas before the conflict events. The magnitude of such second-degree effect of conflict is one-fifth of the first-degree effect. Ignoring this propagation would lead to an underestimate of the total impact of conflict on trade by about 67%. Second, war induces sudden changes in the production-network structure that influence firm performance. Specifically, we find that firms that exogenously became more central --- after the conflict practically cut off certain regions from the rest of Ukraine --- received a relative boost to their revenues. Finally, in a production-network model, we separately estimate the effects of the exogenous firm removal and the subsequent endogenous network adjustment on firm revenue distribution. For a median firm, network adjustment compensates for 80% of the network destruction a year after the conflict onset. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Political Economy |
| 关键词 | Conflict Trade Firms Production networks |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16759-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545693 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vasily Korovkin,Alexey Makarin. DP16759 Production Networks and War: Evidence from Ukraine. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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