| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16986 |
| DP16986 Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden. | |
| Chiara Latour; Giancarlo Spagnolo | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated. |
| 主题 | Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 indicators Excess deaths Covid-19 deaths Containment policies Lockdown Synthetic control method Sweden |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16986 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545932 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chiara Latour,Giancarlo Spagnolo. DP16986 Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden.. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
