| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14206 |
| DP14206 Atlantic Trade and the Decline of Conflict in Europe | |
| Reshad N Ahsan; Laura Panza; Yong Song | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-07 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use over 200 years of conflict and wheat price data to provide the first quantitative evidence that Atlantic trade contributed to Europe’s pacification between 1640 and 1850. While the decline in conflict in Europe during this period has been well documented, the role of Atlantic trade has not been previously explored due to a lack of historical trade data. We overcome this constraint by using wheat prices to calculate time-varying measures of price pass-through between Europe and the New World, which we use as a proxy for Atlantic trade. To identify the causal effects of Atlantic trade, we exploit exogenous changes in wind patterns and tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean to instrument trade. Our results suggest that the growth in Atlantic trade between the mid-17th to the early 19th century lowered the likelihood of intra-European conflict onset by 19.22 percent from the baseline onset probability of 2.30 percent. We find empirical support for two channels driving our results: first, Atlantic trade led to an increase in real wages and a reduction in military sizes in Europe. Second, we show that the possibility of forgone Atlantic trade acted as a deterrent to conflict. |
| 主题 | Economic History |
| 关键词 | Conflict Atlantic trade International relations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14206-2 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/545962 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Reshad N Ahsan,Laura Panza,Yong Song. DP14206 Atlantic Trade and the Decline of Conflict in Europe. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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