| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17111 |
| DP17111 Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices | |
| Thomas Hasenzagl; Filippo Pellegrino; Lucrezia Reichlin; Giovanni Ricco | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-03-15 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via minimal theory-based restrictions. We find that the CBO model implies a smoother trend output but the second model better captures the business cycle dynamics of nominal and real variables. The methodology offers both a framework for evaluating official estimates of unobserved quantities of economic interest and tracking them in real time. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Real-time forecasting Output gap Phillips curve Semi-structural models Bayesian estimation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17111 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546086 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas Hasenzagl,Filippo Pellegrino,Lucrezia Reichlin,et al. DP17111 Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
