全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP17154 Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-up in the EU

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP17154
	DP17154 Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-up in the EU
	Roel Beetsma; Matthias Busse; Lorenzo Germinetti; Massimo Giuliodori; Martin Larch
发表日期	2022-03-29
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	We study the one-year-ahead budgetary projections from the Stability and Convergence Programmes of EU Member States since the start of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) until the start of the coronavirus crisis. We consider first budget-balance errors, which we then split into expenditure and revenue errors. Next, we split the latter two into “base”, “growth” and “denominator” effects. The most important explanatory variable is the GDP growth error: more optimism in GDP growth projections produces more optimistic budgetary projections. This effect goes beyond a mechanical denominator effect on spending and revenues as shares of GDP; it also works through the numerator of these ratios. Our findings may call for delegating the construction of output projections to adequately equipped national independent fiscal institutions. Finally, we explore how independent fiscal institutions shape projection errors. Those with high media impact producing or assessing the macroeconomic forecast appear to lead to actual budgetary improvement relative to projections.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Public Economics
关键词	Budgetary follow-up Projection First-release error Budget balance Revenues Expenditures
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp17154
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546145
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roel Beetsma,Matthias Busse,Lorenzo Germinetti,et al. DP17154 Is the Road to Hell Paved with Good Intentions? An Empirical Analysis of Budgetary Follow-up in the EU. 2022.