| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17187 |
| DP17187 Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target | |
| Klaus Adam; Oliver Pfäuti | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-04-07 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | U.S. households' housing price expectations deviate systematically from rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly; (ii) following housing price changes, expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact; (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about capital gains when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of capital gain extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding capital gain extrapolation into a sticky price model featuring a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes the optimal inflation target to increase strongly as the natural rate falls. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Keywords: monetary policy Subjective housing price expectations Natural rate of interest Housing booms Optimal inflation target Effective lower bound |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17187 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546183 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klaus Adam,Oliver Pfäuti. DP17187 Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target. 2022. |
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