全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP17248 Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP17248
	DP17248 Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory
	Refet Gürkaynak; Burçin Kısacıkoğlu; Sang Seok Lee
发表日期	2022-04-24
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Central bank independence Taylor principle Weak monetary policy Effective upper bound Currency crisis Inflation spirals Emerging markets Turkey
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp17248
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546255
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Refet Gürkaynak,Burçin Kısacıkoğlu,Sang Seok Lee. DP17248 Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory. 2022.