| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17330 |
| DP17330 Growth Volatility and Trade: Market Diversification vs. Production Specialization | |
| Adina Ardelean; Miguel Leon-Ledesma; Laura Puzzello | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-28 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multi-industry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals changing the degree of destination market diversification (including home) and industry specialization. Using data on 19 industrial sectors, 34 countries, and 85 destination markets for the 1980-2011 period, we find that destination risk dominates, followed by idiosyncratic risk. From the counterfactuals, we find that the effect of increased destination market diversification is quantitatively important in reducing aggregate volatility for high volatility countries. On the other hand, reducing specialization increases volatility. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Output volatility Destination shocks Origin shocks Trade diversification Specialization |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17330 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546371 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Adina Ardelean,Miguel Leon-Ledesma,Laura Puzzello. DP17330 Growth Volatility and Trade: Market Diversification vs. Production Specialization. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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