| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17369 |
| DP17369 Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law | |
| Claudia Foroni; Francesco Furlanetto | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun's law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun's regressions and structural shocks identified using a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun's law are a natural and expected outcome once one takes a multi-shock perspective, as long as shocks to automation, labor supply and structural factors in the labor market are taken into account. Our simple recipe for policy makers is that, if a positive deviation from Okun's law arises, it is likely to be generated by either positive labor supply or automation shocks or by negative structural factors shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Okun's law Labor markets Business cycle fluctuations Bayesian var |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17369 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546422 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Claudia Foroni,Francesco Furlanetto. DP17369 Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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