| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17381 |
| DP17381 Global Stagflation | |
| Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-13 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated even after these shocks subside and monetary policies are tightened further. Global growth has been moving in the opposite direction: it has declined sharply since the beginning of the year and, for the remainder of this decade, is expected to remain below the average of the 2010s. In light of these developments, the risk of stagflation—a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth—has risen. The recovery from the stagflation of the 1970s required steep increases in interest rates by major advanced-economy central banks to quell inflation, which triggered a global recession and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies. If current stagflationary pressures intensify, they would likely face severe challenges again because of their less well-anchored inflation expectations, elevated financial vulnerabilities, and weakening growth fundamentals. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | inflation Growth Covid-19 Global recession monetary policy Fiscal policy Disinflation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17381 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546435 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jongrim Ha,M. Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge. DP17381 Global Stagflation. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
