全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP17356 Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP17356
	DP17356 Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation
	Ina Hajdini; Edward Knotek; John Leer; Mathieu Pedemonte; Robert Rich; Raphael Schoenle
发表日期	2022-06-19
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers' inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth is incomplete, on the order of 20 percent. There is no statistically significant effect going in the other direction. Passthrough varies systematically with demographic and socioeconomic factors, with greater passthrough for higher-income individuals than lower-income individuals, although it is still incomplete. Higher inflation expectations also cause consumers to report a higher probability that they will search for a new job that pays more. Using our survey findings to calibrate a search-and-matching model, we find that dampened responses of real wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater fluctuations in output. Taken together, the survey results and model exercises provide a labor market channel to explain why people dislike inflation.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	inflation Wage-price spiral Expectations Randomized controlled trial
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp17356-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546458
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ina Hajdini,Edward Knotek,John Leer,et al. DP17356 Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation. 2022.