| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP16005 |
| DP16005 Diagnostic Business Cycles | |
| Francesco Bianchi; Cosmin Ilut; Hikaru Saijo | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-21 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers' forecasts of their future circumstances appear overly influenced by the new information embedded in their current circumstances. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm (Bordalo et al., 2018) to capture this feature of belief formation and develop the behavioral foundations for applying DE to business cycle models, while demonstrating its empirical relevance for aggregate dynamics. First, we address (i) the theoretical challenges associated with modeling the feedback between optimal actions and agents' DE beliefs and (ii) the time-inconsistencies that arise under distant memory. Second, we show that under distant memory the interaction between actions and DE beliefs naturally generate repeated boom-bust cycles in response to a single initial shock. Finally, we propose a portable solution method to study DE in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and use it to estimate a quantitative DE New Keynesian model. Both endogenous states and distant memory play a critical role in successfully replicating the boom-bust cycle observed in response to a monetary policy shock. |
| 主题 | Business Cycles |
| 关键词 | Diagnostic expectations Boom and bust cycles beliefs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp16005-1 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546466 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco Bianchi,Cosmin Ilut,Hikaru Saijo. DP16005 Diagnostic Business Cycles. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
