| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP17409
|
| DP17409 Armington Elasticities and the Third-Country Effects of Trade Wars |
| Wei Li; Bin Qiu; Zi Wang; Yanbo Zeng; Yuan Zi
|
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-26
|
| 出版年 | 2022
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We revisit the Armington model developed by Feenstra, Luck, Obstfeld, and Russ (2018) that allows the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties to be different from that between alternative foreign varieties. We develop a novel two-stage gravity-based framework to estimate these two elasticities using data on bilateral trade flows, tariffs, and domestic production, exactly the same set of data used for counterfactual analysis. Our estimates suggest that the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties is 43% lower than that between alternative foreign varieties. We apply the model to quantify the global consequences of the US-China trade war starting from 2018. Counterfactual analysis suggests that imposing a uniform elasticity of substitution across all varieties would lead to (i) considerable underestimation of the third-country welfare gains from the US-China trade war, and (ii) overestimation of the noncooperative tariffs between the U.S. and China. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics
|
| 关键词 | Trade elasticities
Gravity equation
Trade war
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17409
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| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546481
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Wei Li,Bin Qiu,Zi Wang,et al. DP17409 Armington Elasticities and the Third-Country Effects of Trade Wars. 2022.
|
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