| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17433 |
| DP17433 The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending | |
| Juan Antolin-Diaz; Paolo Surico | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-07-03 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the dynamic effects of military spending and other government outlays using 125 years of U.S. quarterly data and Vector Auto Regressions (VAR) with up to sixty lags. The output multiplier is below one at business-cycle frequencies but is above one in the long-run. A public spending expansion of 1% of GDP leads to a sustained increase in inflation of 0.15% per year. Military spending crowds out private investment over the first four years but crowds it in at longer horizons. Over the medium-term, innovation and productivity rise persistently, leading to a second output expansion. We show that these dynamics are most likely driven by government R&D expenditure rather than by public investment or public consumption, highlighting an important channel through which fiscal policy can support economic growth beyond the business-cycle. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Government r&d Long-run Tfp Innovation Output multiplier inflation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17433 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546517 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Juan Antolin-Diaz,Paolo Surico. DP17433 The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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